Earth observation data informs African livestock feed policy options

by | Feb 27, 2026 | Africa, AU-IBAR, Earth Observation, Evidence, Forecasting Data, ILRI, Livestock, Nigeria, Research | ,

For livestock-rich countries in Africa, reliable year-round access to feed is essential to drive productivity and income and to overcome any shocks such as drought than cause critical shortages. Knowing where and when feed is available is key intelligence for livestock producers and businesses as well as sector policynakers.

A recent satellite-based approach to map national livestock feed supply and demand offers a robust way to pinpoint where and when feed resources are needed.

Developed by the University of Edinburgh and scaled through the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action and other partners, initial application of the approach in Nigeria and elsewhere revealed opportunities for Government, businesses and producers to better plan and manage livestock feed resources.

Approaching feed balance assessment

In 2024 and 2025, researchers from the University of Edinburgh, the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) developed livestock feed demand and supply models and tools to better inform policy options and investments.

The feed balance assessment method (see image above) is derived from an approach documented in a July 2024 article on ‘Feed balances for ruminant livestock: Gridded estimates for data constrained regions’.

It was later adapted and scaled out to six countries through the ‘Resilient African Feed and Fodder Systems’ project of the African Union Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR) that aims to build resilience and address the adverse effects of crises on African feed and fodder systems.

The feed balance modelling, training and support to the six African countries was led by Jameel Observatory Fellow John Mutua. In his initial update on this activity, he introduced the approach, explaining how it combines satellite imagery with grounded data to provide comprehensive feed balance assessments more quickly and more cheaply than existing methods: A CGIAR outcome story reported that “the satellite-based approach reduced assessment costs and time by 90% compared to these conventional methods while providing near real-time, evidence-based policy formulation.”

Using this approach, livestock data is brought together in a core national inventory from which analysts can create balance sheets and a dashboard that reveals gaps and opportunities that can inform actions by governments, business, traders and livestock producers.

First results in Nigeria

In early 2025, results of the assessment in Nigeria revealed regional disparities between the distribution of livestock and the availability of feed, triggering policy attention from the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development and other stakeholders in the sector.

The April 2025 ‘High-Level Inventory and Investment Forum for Nigeria’ was a key milestone in which the AU-IBAR project handed over the national feed balance and inventory to the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development and the National Bureau of Statistics.

According to the AU-IBAR, “the finalized feed balance provides critical insights into the availability and distribution of feed resources across Nigeria. It identifies feed supply gaps, highlights investment opportunities, and offers recommendations for improving the sustainability of the livestock sector. The methodology and data from the ground truthing exercise have been validated through rigorous processes, including engagement with the National Bureau of Statistics, ensuring its reliability as a foundation for guiding policymakers.”

Speaking at the forum, the Minister of Livestock Development, Idi Mukhtar Maiha, described the initiative as a ‘gamechanger’ in feed sector management, affirming its potential to drive investment, improve productivity, and strengthen the resilience of livestock farmers nationwide. This initiative, he said, “has equipped us with tools to proactively plan for feed security, enhance market opportunities, and improve the livelihoods of millions of livestock farmers.”

The wider feed agenda continues to be a priority of Nigeria’s Federal Government with the Ministry reaffirming its commitment to “make animal feed the engine of Nigeria’s livestock transformation agenda.”

In 2026, AU-IBAR continues to work with other governments such as Uganda and Cameroon, to carry out similar exercises for their livestock sectors.

Initial insights and lessons

Reflecting on this effort, John Mutua in January 2026 explained how such feed balance data can transform government activities (through crisis preparation and early warning), be taken up by industry (through strategic investment targeting), suggest options for traders (by linking surplus and deficit areas), and contribute to livestock productivity (better fed and healthier animals lead to better yields as well as improved family nutrition and livelihoods).

More widely, for drylands especially it reinforces a necessary shift away from reactive, often drought-driven, feeding interventions towards more strategic planning and anticipation based on demands and availability.

Professor Alan Duncan, livestock feed expert at the University of Edinburgh lauded the project and its emerging results:

“John’s research and his support to the project participants delivered robust feed balance assessments that attracted policy attention. When integrated with data from the ground, these satellite-based feed balance dashboards provide actionable data for government decision-making, supporting evidence-based livestock policy and investment planning. The approach is designed to be scalable, offering a pathway for other countries to develop their own feed assessment models and analyses.”

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