From July 2021 to June 2024, our partner Save the Children researched the effectiveness of anticipatory actions carried out in Kenya and Somaliland during protracted crises. The research explored how ‘anticipatory action’ – acting in advance of a crisis – can help prevent extreme weather events from escalating into humanitarian disasters that impact livelihoods and children’s lives.
During this period, both countries experienced one of the worst droughts in history, followed by extensive flooding, resulting in a severe and protracted food crisis. Two case reports and a synthesis brief capture the key insights and lessons.
Overall, the research showed the importance of embedding anticipatory action into wider disaster management approaches and making anticipatory action a mindset and way of working rather than a stand-alone set of interventions. Some specific lessons:
- Local actors need to be integrated: Local people can be the first to act but are not always well integrated into early warning, decision-making, and resource allocation systems.
- Early warning systems need to use new channels: While improving, these are not always trusted or accessible by communities and alternative channels must be utilised.
- Alternative coping strategies are essential: Households had limited coping and income-generating options during crises, resulting in engaging in negative strategies to cope – many of which have detrimental impacts on children, such as pulling them from school.
- Protracted crises require wider adaptation: Anticipatory action has an important role to play, even in a protracted crisis, but cannot work in isolation of wider resilience-building efforts.
- A ‘Do No Harm’ approach is needed: In Somaliland, despite flooding not unfolding as forecasted, households utilised anticipatory support to incorporate adaptation that can support in the long-term, such has as paying off debts. This demonstrates anticipatory action’s capacity to generate positive outcomes, even when crises do not unfold as predicted.
The reports
Lessons learned
To enable women, men, and children to take anticipatory action, this research showed that early warning must be accessible, trusted, and understood, and options for acting early must be available. Further, to enable systems (e.g. veterinary, water, health, nutrition, education, social protection) to scale up in anticipation of shocks, they must first be well functioning, at scale and inclusive. If these systems are weak during non-crisis periods, they will not be able to adapt to forecasted shocks to serve those in greatest need.
Actions identified to strengthen and scale up anticipatory action are:
- Improve access to, communication of, and trust in early warning information as part of a comprehensive approach to disaster risk management
- Develop multi-hazard risk monitoring and response systems, including on conflict
- Ensure funding modalities reflect the realities and risks of people’s lives and support the adaptations they need
- Generating evidence on aa requires flexibility and adaptation
- There is much more to learn
Download: Grace, J. 2024. Lessons learned: Anticipatory action in a protracted crisis. London: Save the Children UK.
Kenya floods
This research in Garissa and Wajir counties in north-eastern Kenya indicated that, overall, anticipatory action seems to be worthwhile in a context of intense flooding, multiple shocks, and protracted crises. While there seem to be limited anticipatory actions available to households when faced with floods, there is a compelling argument to act as early as possible to protect food security, physical safety, and well-being.
Some conclusions:
- Anticipatory cash assistance at this scale and in this context was beneficial, although cash was mostly used for essential needs, rather than anticipatory adaptations.
- Households had limited strategies to prepare for and cope with predicted flooding.
- Anticipatory cash assistance for large-scale flooding had a role in protecting and smoothing food security, well-being and physical safety throughout the flood period; its role in protecting livelihoods was less apparent.
- Savings may have been an important anticipatory strategy for some households, to cope with subsequent flooding or help recover from flood damage.
- Early warning information reached most households and was generally appreciated, and probably enabled most households to take some action.
- Operational limitations delayed the cash disbursements, highlighting the need for flexible processes that do not risk the integrity of programming.
- Many households experienced consecutive floods, highlighting the need for continuous forecast and trigger monitoring, and possibly subsequent rounds of anticipatory assistance. AA systems must be designed to address contexts prone to multiple and continuous shocks.
Download: Swift, L. and Schofield, L. 2024. Lessons in anticipatory action: An operational pilot for flooding in Kenya. London: Save the Children UK [from Save the Children website]
Somalia floods
This research in Awdal region shows that, overall, anticipatory action seems to be worthwhile even in a context of extreme uncertainty and protracted crises such as Somaliland. The anticipatory assistance did not harm households and can be considered “no regrets”. The assistance provided led to temporary improvements in food security outcomes and enabled households to pay off some debt. The costs of inclusion errors (i.e. making cash transfers to those who are not ultimately hit by forecasted shocks) appear low.
Some conclusions:
- Anticipatory cash assistance at this scale and in this context was beneficial, and was mostly used for essential needs, rather than anticipatory adaptations.
- Actions that were taken were not harmful, and may have contributed to longer-term resilience building.
Households appear to have limited strategies to protect livelihoods ahead of flash flooding. This was demonstrated by households’ focus on protecting housing, rather than livelihoods. - Further research should be conducted on the role of credit, debt, and loans in household’s strategies for coping with protracted crises in Somaliland, including preparation for future shocks.
- Anticipatory action may not be sufficient to enable households to cope with anticipated shocks in protracted crises.
- Early warning information was generally appreciated, although trust in the messages decreased as the season progressed (and flooding did not materialise).
- Programme participants stated their preference for smaller, more frequent transfers, rather than a larger one-off transfer.
- There is a need to define more accurate triggers for flash flooding.
Download: Swift, L. et al. 2024. No regrets: Acting in anticipation of flooding in Somaliland. London: Save the Children UK [from Save the Children website]
Significance
Laura Swift, senior food security and livelihoods technical advisor at Save the Children: “Many people around the globe are facing more frequent, complex, and overlapping crises, mostly due to climate change and conflict. The completion of our research has underscored the importance of planning ahead and working with local people to adapt early warning systems, building on the lessons learnt from crises in East Africa over the last few years. While there is still much more to learn we are hopeful that our findings will help scale up anticipatory action and emergency interventions in the face of an increasingly turbulent climate.”
Guyo Malicha Roba, head of the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action: “Early warning systems have become crucial, now more than ever. With vulnerable populations in East Africa at the frontline of the impact of climate shocks and other challenges, we hope the research findings will push policymakers to act sooner rather than later to adopt measures that will shield these communities in times of crisis.”
More
Watch a short video by Community Jameel
Read the Save the Children press release: New research highlights the role of Anticipatory Action in addressing climate crises in East Africa
Read the earlier report: Morinere, Lezlie C., Tozier de la Poterie, Arielle, Swift, Laura and Schofield, Lilly. 2024. Looking ahead in the midst of a crisis: The role of anticipatory action in a protracted drought. London: Save the Children.
Read the report of a June 2024 ‘Anticipatory Action and Resilience Conference’ convened by Save the Children International with the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action and the Inter-Agency Working Group.
Land submerged by water due to floods in Garissa county. Photo credit: Kowthar Abdi, Save the Children