On 27 June 2024, Save the Children International with the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action and the Inter-Agency Working Group convened a one-day conference to examine recent research on Anticipatory Action (AA) and explore how AA can be integrated into broader humanitarian and development initiatives across East Africa.

The conference re-affirmed the importance of developing a structured research agenda into AA and resilience and shaping an action agenda that builds on this research.

The report from the conference summarises presentations and discussions and identifies emerging priority issues to be addressed, both through ongoing research and as best practice.

The key recommendations from the conference are:

Localizing Early Warning and Anticipatory Action: The importance of drawing on, and building, local capacities was emphasized, including acknowledging existing local knowledge and practices, and effectively incorporating them when establishing early warning systems and AA frameworks at local, national and regional levels. Local actors should be active participants in the decision-making, design, and monitoring of AA, rather than just end beneficiaries.

De-mystifying Research and Data: Research is often done in silos, and remains disconnected from practitioners, be they humanitarian agencies, development partners, or government; it is critical to have harmonized and shared data repositories. Additionally, the data and methodology underpinning Early Warning Systems and AA need to be accessible to, and understood, trusted and accepted by, local communities – and there needs to be clear transmission of locally-generated early warnings into national EWS systems (and vice versa). Furthermore, there needs to be a shift from predicting hazards or conflict to forecasting their potential impacts.

Institutionalizing AA: AA should not be seen as a standalone project-based intervention. It needs to be embedded in local, national and regional frameworks, policies, plans and systems to ensure ownership, nurture its further scale-up, to promote a harmonized and agreed approach and to enhance its contribution to resilience-building, including through linkages to safety nets and other social protection mechanisms.

Integrating AA into broader Disaster Risk Management Frameworks: With the climate crisis, conflict, acute food insecurity and displacement all becoming part of a “new normal” in Eastern Africa, there is a need to ensure that AA forms part of a holistic and risk-informed approach to DRM, encompassing preparedness, mitigation, response and ongoing resilience and development support after the initial shock and AA intervention.

Coordinating AA: At present, there are too many individual AA policies, approaches and guidelines. Common frameworks, triggers and response packages are needed at both aid agency and donor level, to promote a harmonized and agreed approach, leading to increased effectiveness and impact in saving lives and livelihoods.

Addressing AA in Conflict Situations: Conflict-sensitive AA programming in the Horn of Africa was highlighted as a gap, which needs to be addressed. The establishment of community-level peace committees can facilitate pre-emptive dialogue, reducing tensions and mitigating conflict risks. Particular attention should be given to the integration of Protection, as well as the role of cash as an AA modality, in conflict contexts.

Implementing Cross-Border Interventions in AA: There is a need for increased attention to cross-border interventions, both for climate-driven crises (drought, floods) and conflict – and especially for mobile populations such as pastoralists. There is a specific role for Regional Organizations, such as IGAD, in this.

Contextualizing Anticipatory Action: For AA to be effective, it needs to take into consideration the different social contexts including the economic, geographic, and gender contexts.

Funding: Additional funding is required to scale up AA, but there are several barriers to be overcome. At the government level, there are challenges in reallocating budgets designed for emergency response to AA, or from one administrative level to another. Governments are often reluctant to declare emergencies in advance: under an AA approach, donors should not wait for such declarations before releasing funds. Also at donor level, there is a need for more flexible, multi-year funding and better engagement of development donors, including IFIs. This latter is vital to ensure continued engagement with communities after the AA and emergency response. At responder level, given the increasing role of climate as a driver of crisis, agencies should also seek to access and leverage climate financing to further scale up AA.

Linking Research to Curriculum Development and Education: There is a significant body of research into AA, and it is important to integrate this research into curriculum development at schools and institutions of higher learning to ensure that the findings continue to be amplified, applied and to shape trainings at various levels.