The desk review of actors, challenges and opportunities from our ‘impact collaboration‘ on early warning systems and dryland communities in the Horn of Africa has been published.
The report reviews evidence to help answer the challenge question ‘how can we bridge the disconnects between food security, climate, and natural hazards early warning systems and the anticipatory actions that pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa can take to overcome recurring shocks and threats to their lives and livelihoods?’
This review is complemented by the reports from two community studies in Kenya and Ethiopia [forthcoming].
In summary, the authors found that barriers such as language, limited infrastructure and data that are not adapted to local needs reduce the effectiveness of early warning systems. Community-based and local knowledge have great potential but are often overlooked and poorly integrated with scientific methods. To make these early warning systems more effective, communities must be included in their design and operation. Technology, infrastructure investment, skills development and public-private partnerships can strengthen information sharing, to build more responsive systems.
The authors conclude that there has been major advancements in early warning systems (EWS) and anticipatory action (AA) in the Greater Horn of Africa. They also identify considerable challenges: The region’s vulnerability to climate-related disasters, combined with a complex web of stakeholders—governments, international bodies, NGOs, the private sector, and research institutions—continues to hinder coordination and timely disaster response.
“One of the most pressing concerns is the slow and inconsistent implementation of anticipatory actions.”
Despite clear early warning signals, responses often remain delayed and reactive, largely due to weak government commitment, bureaucratic hurdles, and funding constraints.
Addressing these challenges, they argue, requires strengthening national capacities, reducing dependency on international support, and fostering collaboration across these diverse actors. Furthermore, it is crucial to institutionalize AA within national frameworks, ensuring that early actions are not contingent on ad-hoc donor support but rather embedded in long-term risk management strategies.
A key focus must be to ensure that EWS effectively reach and engage at-risk communities. Language barriers, limited infrastructure, and insufficient localisation of data continue to hinder information flows, particularly among pastoralist and agro-pastoralist populations.
Community-based EWS have shown great potential in addressing these challenges by actively involving communities in different stages of the EWS framework.
Indigenous knowledge remains underutilized in formal EWS. While some initiatives have attempted to integrate community-based approaches, including indigenous knowledge, with scientific forecasting, broader systematic efforts are needed to ensure communities are fully incorporated into EWS.
Ensuring proactive and inclusive disaster risk management in the region will require institutional reforms, strengthened community participation, and enhanced coordination to build more effective, sustainable, and responsive systems. Leveraging technological advancements such as satellite data, mobile technology, and AI-driven forecasting can improve their accessibility and relevance, while embedding community-based and indigenous knowledge within formal disaster risk management frameworks will enhance local governance and integration.
Strengthening community-led early warning initiatives through training, resources, and formal recognition can bridge gaps between scientific and Indigenous forecasting.
Additionally, expanding investment in infrastructure, capacity building, and public-private partnerships—particularly in telecommunications, financial services, and risk financing—can improve EWS dissemination and anticipatory action mechanisms.
A more coordinated regional approach is needed to enhance information sharing and align responses to transboundary hazards. By prioritising these interventions, the region can develop a more resilient and responsive early warning framework, ensuring that communities are better equipped to anticipate and withstand climate-related disasters.