Addis Ababa dialogue examines dryland early action and resilience lessons

by | May 26, 2025 | AICCRA, Anticipatory Action, Community of Practice, Dialogue, Drought, Drylands, Early Action, Early Warning, Eastern Africa, Ethiopia, Horn of Africa, ILRI, Kenya, Pastoralism, Research, Resilience, Somalia |

On 15 and 16 May, eighty people joined our drylands food security and resilience early action research and evidence dialogue in Addis Ababa.  It provided a forum to examine ongoing research, facilitate cross-fertilization, learning, synergies and collaboration and help distil key messages and insights to put into action.

Building from earlier discussions on Jameel Observatory supported research and co-organized with the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) project, the dialogue focused in different interconnected themes including: building resilience to shocks and risks, improving forecasts, advancing locally led early action, rethinking support for pastoralist communities, and enhancing the use and usefulness of data. The event highlighted that effective early warning systems (EWS) anchored in risk knowledge, timely detection, clear communication, and preparedness are essential to safeguarding livelihoods and enabling communities in drylands to anticipate, respond to, and recover from climate-related shocks.

Tadesse Bekele, Senior Advisor, Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission.

Opening remarks

Welcome remarks were provided by Professor Geoff Simm, Head of the Division of Global Agriculture and Food Systems, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh; Tahira Mohamed, Regional Engagement Lead, Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action; Berhanu Belay, Senior Researcher and Climate Education Expert, AICCRA; Namukolo Covic, ILRI Director General’s Representative to Ethiopia and CGIAR Ethiopia Convenor; Kinfe Hailemariam, Deputy Director, Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and Tadesse Bekele, Senior Advisor, Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission.

Namukolo Covic, ILRI Director General’s Representative to Ethiopia.

In her opening remarks and call to action, Namukolo Covic argued that research must foster resilience “now, and over time”, so it enhances resilient food security (in the longer term) and saves lives (in emergencies).

Thereafter, the dialogue comprised seven parallel workshops and two plenary sessions (see below) as well as a knowledge exchange marketplace.

Early warning for all in Ethiopia

As climate-related risks intensify across the Horn of Africa, the urgency to develop inclusive, localized, and actionable early warning systems becomes ever more critical. Ethiopia’s dryland regions are particularly exposed to compounding risks, making targeted early warning and anticipatory action a cornerstone of resilience-building.

The first plenary session of the dialogue was convened by  AICCRA and partners, bringing together key actors to explore the challenges and opportunities in strengthening inclusive early warning systems and anticipatory action in Ethiopia’s drylands.

Convened by  Amanda Grossi of the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, it featured presentations by:

Ernest Afiesimama, Regional Programme Manager, World Meteorological Organization speaking at the Jameel Observatory drylands food security and resilience early action research and evidence dialogue, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 15-16 May 2025

The session provided a comprehensive update on the status of early warning in Ethiopia across the four pillars of the Early Warning for All (EW4All) initiative. Moreover, interactive discussions highlighted strategic priorities and investment areas needed to ensure early warning systems are timely, accessible, and actionable for dryland communities in Ethiopia and the wider region.

Read more in this report by the AICCRA project

Anticipatory action for drylands and pastoralist communities in Ethiopia

This session shared lessons with anticipatory action in recent drought and other shocks, drawing on experiences of Save the Children, Ethiopia Red Cross and other partners

Convened by Nelly Maonde of the START Network, it featured two presentations:

  • Save the Children Priorities and Key Learnings from Early Warning & Early Action Practices on Drought Hazard in Pastoralist Communities of Somali Region, Ethiopia – by Wasihun Masresha (Save the Children). Download: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174784
  • Anticipatory Action: Ethiopian Red Cross EAP activations – by Mihreteab Getachew (Ethiopia Red Cross Society). Download: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174773

Discussion highlighted some key points:

  • the need for institutional collaboration, to shift from institution-specific anticipatory actions to joint, sector-wide approaches.
  • the need for sectoral linkages – to development and private sector initiatives.
  • how to overcome community resistance and low trust in early warning systems by some pastoralist communities
  • how to integrate anticipatory actions into national climate and disaster frameworks, this is essential for sustainability.

Policy priorities identified include the IGAD roadmap that offers an entry point for organisations to align their DRR and DRM projects; institutionalizing AA into public planning cycles; addressing barriers to data sharing and transparency; mobilising diaspora support for AA; and overcoming disconnects between national policy ambitions and local implementation capacities.

Research opportunities identified include: Documenting and supporting what communities are already doing in anticipation of shocks; investigating localised thresholds, triggers, and impact pathways for AA; and exploring methods to bridge indigenous and scientific knowledge systems in meaningful ways.

 

Towards pastoralist and dryland prosperity and resilience – emerging narratives and priorities

This session explored ‘grounded’ narratives on drylands in the Horn of Africa, their importance, and opportunities to enhance the prosperity and resilience of dryland communities and pastoralists through early action and targeted investment.

Convened by Jarso Mokku of the Drylands Learning and Capacity Building Initiative, it featured one presentation: The Drylands of Tomorrow: Pathways to Prosperity – by Samuel Derbyshire (ILRI). Download: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174782

The presentation and plenary conversations reminded us of old narratives driving pastoralism, dryland economies, policy, and practice: that pastoralists oppose modernity and drive instability, that solutions must originate from outside, that pastoralism is environmentally destructive, inherently vulnerable and unproductive – “not worthy of any investment.”

These narratives are driven by negative attitudes, stereotypes, limited understanding and knowledge, and a lack of genuine appreciation for pastoralists’ capacity, resilience, and flexibility to manage uncertainty and variable climate conditions over time and space.

Yet, pastoralism remains resilient. It has sustained the lives and livelihoods of over 60 million people in the Horn of Africa. It contributes significantly to countries’ economies, serves as the primary source of income, provides food security, and drives trade opportunities in broader regional and global markets. It constitutes a substantial productive sector and portion of national and regional GDP that adds value to agricultural output, employment and investment.

Priority actions for the pathways to future pastoralist prosperity and resilience include:

  • Shifting policy actions from project-based crisis responses to proactively supporting community systems and developing suitable institutions and investment actions.
  • Promoting “grounded” new narratives that strengthen successful collaborations across research, policy making, policy practice, and future investment in dryland economies.

Read a fuller reflection post written by Jarso Mokku.

 

Early action on health and nutrition for resilient dryland and pastoralist communities

This session focused on one health challenges and solutions in dryland areas facing drought and other shocks.

Convened by Geoff Simm of the University of Edinburgh, it featured four presentations:

Insights from the discussions included:

  • Animal health is key in supporting livelihoods and prevents malnutrition.
  • Providing healthcare in pastoralist communities is challenging and the HEAL one health units present a sustainable, systemically aligned opportunity to really move from talk into action. With resource constraints, One Health approaches can encourage more efficient use of these resources.
  • Actioning one health goes beyond healthcare service delivery and we need to embrace and adapt modern technologies. VSFG is demonstrating this through their innovative methods which take into account water provision, improved livestock and crop production but not forgetting livelihood support through cash transfer programmes and re-stocking.
  • While implementing, monitoring, evaluations and learning is crucial. As we’ve heard from many speakers, collecting quantitative data and limiting study design hampers analysis. Applications like Mbiotisho presented by Nathan Jensen offer an opportunity to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of data collection. Working together as researchers and practitioners is vital for improving our evaluation data.

 

From pixels to people – Forecasting and mapping agri-environmental and social changes with earth observation

This session explored approaches to using earth observation data and tools and making them relevant –  usable, accessible, transparent, valuable – for pastoral communities and other dryland actors/stakeholders.

Convened by Kelvin Shikuku of ILRI, the session featured 3 presentations and three short case presentations:

  • From pixels to people – Forecasting and mapping dryland agri-environmental and social changes with earth observation – by Francesco Fava (University Milan). Download: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174785
  • Earth observation and poverty assessments – by Gary Watmough (University of Edinburgh)
  • Integrating earth observation and other data sources for pastoralist and stakeholder’s early action – by Sintayehu Alemayehu (Alliance Bioversity and CIAT). Download: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174770
  • Ruminant Livestock Feed Balance Models – Insights from Nigeria – by John Mutua (University of Edinburgh). Download: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6023
  • Earth Observation for enhanced monitoring, evaluation and learning of development programmes – by Saeeda Gouhari (University of Edinburgh). Download: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6024
  • Earth Observation for Rangeland Intelligence: Mapping, Monitoring, Managing – by Ambica Paliwal (ILRI). Download: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174776

A revolving theme in discussions was that earth observation presents unprecedented solutions for tackling challenges in the drylands. However, these solutions should not be generalised but tailored to recognise the uniqueness and complexity of drylands. Complex data-driven models (AI, machine learning) may not always be the best approach to every problem and simpler solutions (bio-physical, knowledge-driven) can sometimes be surprisingly sufficient. Community involvement is key in the success of these models, not only to get buy-in by users but also to validate the models.

 

Amanda Grossi, Research Team Leader, Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT

From data to action: Building enduring capacity for resilience in the drylands

Climate information is only as powerful as the systems, institutions, and individuals who can understand and act on it. In Ethiopia’s drylands—where communities face increasing and compounding climate risks—strengthening the full ecosystem of capacities is essential to transform data into effective anticipatory action.

This 90-minute session spotlighted innovative and integrated capacity development approaches aimed at enhancing the availability, accessibility, and use of climate information for Ethiopia’s drylands.

Convened by Amanda Grossi of the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, this session featured four presentations:

Presentations showcased how tools, training, and policy engagement are coming together to build enduring capacity across multiple levels: systems, institutions, communities, and individuals. Key initiatives featured included the Automatic Weather Station Data Tool (ADT), Maprooms, Ag-Data Hubs, and tailored forecasts targeting those working in livestock systems under the AICCRA program. The session also highlighted cross-country efforts to equip livestock and animal health extensionists with the foundational climate knowledge and practical skills needed to manage risk through curricula targeting agricultural colleges and universities in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Senegal.

Read more in this report by the AICCRA project

Community-managed disaster risk reduction in drought and conflict affected areas of Ethiopia

Drawing on work in Somali and Borena regions of Ethiopia, the session shared early warning and anticipatory action lessons and experiences from the ‘Strengthening Climate-Resilient Livelihoods, Adaptation and Preparedness towards Climate Extremes, Conflict and Displacement In Kenya and Ethiopia’ project.

Convened by Jannie Nielsen of ADRA Denmark, the session featured presentations by Jannie Nielsen (ADRA Denmark), Markos Tilahun (Welthungerhilfe), Zerihun Awano (ADRA Ethiopia) and Redwan Getachew (VSF Suisse). Download: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174767

Groups discussed three questions: What makes early warning systems trusted and actionable at community level? How best can traditional and modern scientific forecasting be integrated; and should they be integrated?  What roles should community forums plan in hazard identification, risk analysis and early action protocols; and what enables or hinders early warning and anticipatory action being locally led?

Some points from the discussions:

  • Promoting community participation from the beginning is important; also absorbing community practices into early warning.
  • It is important to invest in community structures – cooperatives, indigenous knowledge, community leadership etc.
  • Integration of traditional and modern forecasting is good, but how will we best achieve it; who does this? We can also see the various knowledge systems as complementary … do we integrate or do we complement?
  • Often, building trust comes when “seeing is believing”. This is important for everyone involved. Learning from what happens ‘next door’ is also a good way to boost trust.

 

Pathways to dryland livestock systems transformation and resilience

This session explored current approaches to livestock market development in drylands; also livestock service restoration after droughts as well as feed and fodder early warning systems.

Convened by Isabelle Baltenweck of ILRI, the session featured three presentations:

 

Harvesting resilience: Community perspectives on early warning systems in Ethiopia and Kenya

This plenary session shared insights from a Jameel Observatory ‘impact collaboration’ and featured two presentations:

  • Harvesting resilience – setting the Stage: How can we bridge the disconnects between food security, climatic and natural disaster Early Warning Systems and the anticipatory actions that pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa can take? – by Brenda Lazarus (FAO). Download: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174774
  • Harvesting resilience: Community perspectives on early warning systems in Ethiopia – by Aurelie Walker (Urban Foresight) and Abdulfatah SheikhBihi Adam (Maanshiil Consult). Download: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174786

Participants reflected on the discussions, identifying surprises, gaps and strong points and suggesting opportunities for the team to take this work forward.

Anticipatory action outlook and opportunities for the Horn of Africa

This session explored strategy and priorities from regional, national and local perspectives. It featured a presentation ‘ anticipatory action and implementation of the IGAD regional roadmap‘ – by George Otieno (ICPAC) – https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174775 – and a panel discussion with four people:

  • Nelly Maonde, START Network
  • Tarekegn Abera, Ethiopian Meteorological Institute
  • Tahira Mohamed – Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action
  • Guyo Genge – CIFA Ethiopia

Participants reflected on the presentation and panel discussion, asking questions to George Otieno and providing answers to two questions:

What does ‘success’ for anticipatory action look like?

The points captured by the participant brainstorming shows success to be both in the ‘what’ and the ‘how’:

  • Success is when communities are resilient; and when impact- based forecasts save lives through anticipatory actions.
  • Success is when information actually reaches those who need it; and this leads to behaviour changes
  • Success is when capacities are available to deliver anticipatory actions.

Success is also when anticipatory actions are:

  • Aligned with existing structures
  • Community-driven and owned
  • Funded and sustained – should be a government priority
  • Bottom-up, but lessons and best practices are fed back to the system.
  • Delivered in times of prosperity
  • Appropriately coordinated, also across-borders
  • Inclusive and participatory
  • Gender sensitive
  • Set out in dynamic roadmaps

What are some key policy, practice and research actions for effective regional, national and local anticipatory action implementation?

Actions brainstormed by participants were:

  • Better understanding of ministers and how to engage and interest them
  • Resources and joint investment plans invested at scale at leverage points for impact
  • Harmonize between local and ‘external’ anticipatory action and warnings
  • Prioritize tasks to achieve goals
  • Establish a learning and research facility
  • Align DRM + AA + Social protection in multi-hazard, system-wide ways.
  • Implementation at local level.
  • increase cross-border actions and policy harmonisation
  • Do we need more positive message to improve responses to early warning
  • Integrate longer-term development partners to implement AA in good times
  • Improve stakeholder coordination and implementation of regional roadmaps
  • Research specific bottlenecks and issues in operationalising existing policies
  • Research what should be done to enhance adoption

More

Opening remarks at the dialogue by Namukolo Covic, ILRI

A report on the discussions by the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa project

Our community of practice meeting on 13 and 14 May 2025