Earlier this year, the Observatory commissioned Dieynab Diatta (then consultant, now a PhD student at Cornell University) to synthesize literature on household outcomes in the face of multiple shocks.
The literature review identified large gaps in knowledge, especially in relation to if, when, and how shocks interact and it provides the foundation for an ongoing study on these interactions that was presented at a 30 August workshop on high-frequency survey data hosted by the Collaboration for International Development Economics Research (CIDER).

Presented by Cornell University’s Joanna Upton, Dieynab Diatta and Nathan Jensen of the Observatory, the research aims to assess the dynamic impact of shocks as they compound and interact.
Specifically, it asks two research questions: Do the impacts of one shock increase the likelihood of being affected by another shock? And, how to the impacts of concurrent shocks interact?
To answer these questions, the researchers are using a unique panel of data collected monthly by Catholic Relief Services in Malawi between July 2021- July 2024 as part of the Rapid Feedback Monitoring System (RFMS data are collected by CRS in close collaboration with Cornell University, the Government of Malawi and the World Bank, with funding from the United States Agency for International Development). These data include monthly information on food security as well as reports of different types of shocks and their impacts, which will be used to unpack their interactions.
In the presentation, Upton noted that shocks of all kinds are increasing in frequency and intensity, compromising livelihoods especially in vulnerable regions, reasoning that households are therefore at increased risk from concurrent and/or interconnected shocks, which could have compounding effects on household welfare.
She outlined some emerging insights from the literature review – notably that while the literature widely mentions that concurrent shocks could interact, interactions are rarely analysed. She also introduced some insights and questions arising from preliminary data analysis.
The research continues and we expect the findings to be relevant to organization working to support households in the face of diverse shocks and stressors.
It will be informative to understand the degree to which previous shocks affects households’ likelihood of experiencing, or suffering from, additional shocks.
Moreover, in developing country environments increasingly fraught with multiple shocks, it is important to understand the degree to which subsequent shocks add to or compound the impacts of previous shocks.
If shocks do interact, whether it be because initial shocks sap households of critical resources for later coping or by pushing households over thresholds in opportunities, there are large implications for how resilience and vulnerability programming is conceptualized and for efforts aimed at forecasting humanitarian crisis.
More information
USAID ClimateLinks story (Aug 2024): Enhancing Community Resilience: Addressing Compound and Cascading Climate Shocks
IFPRI policy note (Feb 2024): Compounding stresses confront rural households in southern Malawi
CRS story (Jan 2024): Resilience Monitoring and Impact Analysis in Humanitarian Responses
World Bank/USAID factsheet (Nov 2022): Rapid Feedback Monitoring System (RFMS)
CRS case study (Aug 2021): Monthly Interval Resilience Analysis (MIRA): Measuring Resilience and Well-Being for Stronger Food Security and Resilience Programming