A new report provides key messages and discussions from a workshop on anticipatory action for drylands and pastoralist communities in the Horn of Africa. Bringing together researchers, policymakers, and practitioners involved in early warning and anticipatory action, discussions examined current challenges and opportunities for anticipatory action in pastoralist areas, determining what is needed from different sectors to facilitate pre-drought responses that improve the resilience and livelihoods of pastoralists.
The drylands of the Greater Horn of Africa are home to diverse pastoralist communities whose livelihoods are intricately linked to the health of the land, and who navigate highly variable rainfall patterns and volatile ecological conditions with skill, drawing on dynamic knowledge systems.
While drought has long been a characteristic feature of these areas, there has been relatively little investment in or support of locally led drought preparation and management strategies. Many pastoralist communities thus continue to be drastically undermined by drought, regularly facing substantial livestock losses, diseases, reduced milk production and reduced income.
As part of a wider program of work undertaken at ILRI with support from the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action and the Supporting Pastoralism and Agriculture in Recurrent and Protracted Crises (SPARC) Programme, this August 2024 workshop convened regional experts to better understand where and how early warnings are translated into effective early actions in the drylands.
Specifically, participants asked how anticipatory action can work better in areas that are characterised by high levels of flexibility and mobility, and where difficult conditions are managed through highly networked, relational practices hinging more on dynamic decision making than prediction-based planning.
Key messages
1. Acknowledging the progress made in drought management in the Greater Horn region: Huge strides have been made toward institutionalizing drought management and moving away from reactive responses towards anticipatory actions. Past successes should serve as inspiration for what is possible in the years ahead in terms of recognizing and supporting the role of pastoralism in managing volatile conditions. This progress can only be built on with better financing and coordination, and concerted efforts to enhance linkages across multiple levels of governance, from regional structures down to customary institutions.
2. Localization should mean better support for existing pastoralist strategies: While many policy documents advocate for some form of localization, suggestions for how to better orient anticipatory action protocols towards existing pastoralist practices and strategies remain few and far between. There is an urgent need for innovations and creative approaches to drought early action that are less about ‘integrating’ pastoralist knowledge and more about supporting what already works in the drylands.
3. Does better coordination mean centralization? There are difficult questions to address in the years ahead regarding recent trends towards more centralised, ‘topdown’ forms of analysis and decision making in regional early warning systems, particularly considering how such trends contravene the longer-term picture. In Kenya, for example, the last few decades have seen concerted efforts to build capacity at the local level, rooting monitoring, planning and response in county (previously district)-level institutions and knowledge bases. Such processes threaten to be undermined by calls for more centralization as a means of improved coordination.
4. Communication gaps remain a major barrier: Better communication between researchers, policymakers, implementers and pastoralist communities is critically important in the face of a variety of complex challenges, including changing weather patterns, financial streams and political dynamics. Effective means of facilitating better communication are co-convening regular learning events and dialogue platforms, however these often fail to incorporate insights from pastoralists themselves. Better communication in the years ahead must entail learning from diverse pastoralist contexts and facilitating cross-learning in the drylands.
5. Financing is a critical priority: While drought management institutions, policy frameworks and systems have all evolved significantly over recent decades, financing remains a major factor leading to delayed response. Acting effectively to avoid drought related disasters requires earmarked contingency funding that is both nimble and flexible.
Download the report:
Derbyshire, S.F., Mohamed, T., Hassan, R., Banerjee, R., Roba, G. and Elmi, M. 2025. Anticipatory action in the drylands: Exploring key challenges and opportunities for early warning in pastoralist areas of the Greater Horn of Africa. ILRI Workshop Report. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175138