Writing in Context News, with floods, droughts and extreme weather threatening billions of people, Guyo Malicha Roba argues that investing in early warning systems must be a priority.
A member of the Maasai pastoralist community escorts his emaciated cows affected by the worsening drought due to the failed rainy season, at a livestock market in Ilbisil settlement of Kajiado, Kenya October 17, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya
Current levels of investment are woefully inadequate
Predicted weather patterns will lead to devastating food shortages in 2025, according to a recent United Nations report on the impact of global weather systems.
With the threat of a La Niña weather pattern – which involves the cooling of ocean surface temperatures – looming over sub-Saharan Africa, already vulnerable food systems may be stretched to breaking point.
If we are to prevent catastrophe, early intervention is vital – and increasing funding for food system resilience is critical to safeguard the livelihoods of millions in vulnerable regions.
Early warning systems use advanced data points and real-world social information to predict droughts and flooding before they occur.
Whether looking months or just days ahead, they allow individuals and communities to anticipate the impact on food supplies, plan for how to manage crops and herds, and plan evacuations to prevent loss of life and livelihoods.
Despite this, current levels of investment are woefully inadequate. In 2021, only 2.7% of the $71 billion of global crisis financing aid was spent on anticipatory action for crisis preparedness, which includes early warning systems.
Build resilience
Some crises are obvious; others, such as drought, can be the cumulative result of months or even years of below-average rainfall, and detection is not always straightforward.
By monitoring long-term weather patterns and other markers, such as the cost of staple grains and satellite mapping of vegetation, early warning systems can predict food shortages before they occur, allowing communities to build resilience – and not just react after disaster strikes.
For example, an estimated 1.7 million people, across arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya were projected to face crisis levels of acute food insecurity between last October and January 2025.
Some 80% of communities in these areas rely on livestock for subsistence and so providing early warning systems to increase the resilience of pastoralist communities must be a priority.
Research shows that effective early warning systems can reduce damage by 30% if activated as little as 24 hours before an event.
Continued investment in weather pattern modelling has also proved effective. These data models enable communities in northern Kenya to prepare for crises – by gathering feed and medical supplies prior to a supply shock or by travelling to Nairobi to sell livestock.
These measures can be the difference between life and death in rural communities.
Timely preparation
Early warnings can also be used by humanitarian organisations to mobilise crisis support ahead of time.
Early warning systems also allow health authorities to predict when to pre-emptively evacuate areas or distribute medical products and devices, such as cholera kits, mosquito nets and other disease-prevention resources to limit the impact of potential outbreaks.
Generally, aid flows increase significantly during emergencies, when philanthropists and donors are touched by scenes of death and destruction, but such reactive support is less effective in reducing loss of life than anticipatory action.
Convincing would-be funders of the value of early warning systems versus crisis response is an important part of the puzzle if we are to lift investment to satisfactory levels.
But funding is not the only hurdle. Despite the technological marvel of early warning tools – which can predict ocean conditions up to eight months before they occur – warnings do not systematically reach intended towns and villages.
Early warnings are often not passed on effectively
In December 2023, the failure to heed flood warnings resulted in 300 deaths and over a million people displaced across Kenya and Somalia.
Although widely valued at a country level, early warnings are often not passed on effectively and fail to take into account local and traditional methods of communication, reducing their effectiveness.
Implementing a more horizontal approach that integrates local traditions and superstition into high-tech tools for accurate decision-making helps protect communities.
Only with these measures will policymakers and organisations, like the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action, bridge the gap between early warning system providers and the pastoral communities they benefit, which would also help address difficulties presented by funding delays.
With changing weather patterns presenting a profound threat to billions of people worldwide, investing in early warning systems must become a priority.
The United Nations wants to support all vulnerable regions with early warning systems by 2027.
For this to become a reality, urgent and effective channelling of capital to this under-valued but essential area is key.