This article by Jameel Observatory researchers unpacks the aid modality of ‘anticipatory action’, asking where its limitations lie and what can be done to improve its utility in pastoralist areas in the years ahead. Here, lead author Sam Derbyshire introduces key messages and actions from the article.
Drawing together learnings from the Jameel Observatory’s regular community of practice meetings and diverse ongoing research activities, this article unpacks the aid modality of ‘anticipatory action’, asking where its limitations lie and what can be done to improve its utility in pastoralist areas in the years ahead.
Anticipatory action has, over recent years, become a central pillar of humanitarian and development practice, yet its meaning and application have grown increasingly diffuse. This article argues that, despite its promise, anticipatory action has engaged insufficiently with the realities of drylands pastoralism, where livelihoods are shaped by uncertainty, mobility and collective decision-making rather than predictability and control.
Systems and disconnects
The article notes that early warning systems and anticipatory action in dryland pastoralist contexts are increasingly shaped by technocratic, centralised and apolitical institutional logics that sit uneasily with both historical trajectories of drought governance and the lived realities of crisis management on the ground. While early warning has advanced technically, it has often become detached from people-centred, politically grounded approaches that emphasise local ownership of risk, discretion and responsiveness to uncertainty.
It critiques data-driven decision-making that simplifies complex system dynamics, instrumentalises indigenous knowledge and prioritises efficiency and donor accountability over learning, flexibility and justice. It shows that pastoralist knowledge systems are dynamic, relational and oriented toward managing instability rather than restoring equilibrium, and that effective anticipatory action must engage with relationships, mobility and extended networks rather than bounded communities or asset protection alone.
Actions and impacts
Following on from this, the article explores weather and climate information in relation to highly localized environmental variability and limited capacity to act. It argues for expanding the focus beyond improving data or trust in forecasts, toward creating participatory dialogues between pastoralists and agencies, supporting local informal actors who already provide critical services and orienting interventions toward collective rather than individual vulnerabilities.
While anticipatory action promises earlier, more dignified support, the article warns that poorly designed interventions can unintentionally undermine mobility, customary institutions and resilience, highlighting the need for approaches that respect the dynamic, relational and socially embedded nature of pastoralist livelihoods.
Paths forward: priorities for anticipatory action in the drylands
Charting a path forward, the article advocates for a more clearly defined anticipatory action agenda for pastoralists, explicitly recognising the differences between how pastoralists and settled farmers engage with the fundamental issues of uncertainty, risk, prediction and vulnerability in their livelihoods.
It also advocates for strategic capacity building among development actors, arguing that ‘Finding new ways of harnessing drought management institutions and early warning systems requires targeted capacity building interventions at multiple levels across the varied systems they shape.’
Finally, it highlights the importance of targeted research that seeks to provide clarity on pastoralist decision making and the use of weather and climate information, providing a clearer picture of how resources delivered in the run up to crises are engaged with at the local level.
Conclusions
Implementation of anticipatory action remains fragmented and global instability, combined with the legacy of development approaches that prioritize stabilization, prediction and individualized vulnerability, often leads to a misalignment between formal assistance and the collective and relational nature of pastoralist livelihoods.
Nevertheless, despite these challenges, there are important opportunities. Advances in information and communication technologies, rising local investment and expanding political representation for pastoralist populations all create potential for more effective and responsive anticipatory action. At its core, anticipatory action remains grounded in the principle that famine in the drylands is unacceptable and preventable. This enduring imperative, combined with incremental, pragmatic interventions and a pro-pastoralist orientation, provides a foundation for fostering more contextually appropriate, collaborative and sustainable approaches to drought management and crisis response in the drylands.
More:
Read the article: Derbyshire, S.F., Jensen, N.D., Mutua, J.Y., Mohamed, T.S., Mukwaya, P.R., Roba, G.M., Njambi-Szlapka, S., Thomas, S., Tsitati, G. and Duncan, A.J. 2026. Anticipatory action and pastoralism in Africa: A synthesis of current challenges, opportunities, and priorities. Disasters, 50(1): e70026