The final report of our research accelerator project on ‘next-generation earth observation for anticipatory drought risk management in East African pastoral drylands’ (NG’OMbE) provides options to address challenges to the operational continuity of drought risk management and financing (DRMF) systems that rely on earth observation datasets.
Earth observation data and continuity challenges
Anticipatory drought risk management and financing (DRMF) systems are fundamental to mitigate the impacts of drought and to prevent humanitarian crises in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya’s operational models—the Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS) of the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) programs—are pioneer operational systems based on an early trigger-early action logic.
These and other systems rely on Earth Observation (EO) data – the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the MODIS sensor – to monitor drought indicators and trigger shock-responsive cash transfers, insurance payouts, or other interventions.
However, the MODIS mission is already beyond its expected lifetime, has growing data quality issues and will soon cease to be operational. The NG’OMbE project was thus set up to support the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of DRMF programs in pastoral drylands by addressing the following interrelated challenges:
1. Securing DRMF operational continuity. Kenyan DRMF systems targeting pastoral drylands rely on long, consistent 20-year NDVI time series from MODIS. With MODIS nearing its end-of-life and showing declining data quality, there is an urgent need to identify alternative datasets and harmonize time series from multiple sensors to guarantee the future stability and financial integrity of operational DRMF programs like DEWS and IBLI. The resulting replacement must replicate historical drought patterns and financial outputs.
2. Assessing high-resolution EO data feasibility. Satellite missions like Landsat, Sentinel-2, and Planet Scope offer much finer spatial detail (3-30 m) and are currently promoted as suitable alternative to datasets used for operational DRMF programs. While these missions provide long-term continuity, their short historical archive and inconsistent revisit time – particularly in cloud-prone regions – pose challenges for reliable index calculation. We need to understand the true benefits and limitations of moving from coarse-resolution to high-resolution data for pastoral DRMF applications before major investment is made and to identify gaps that could inform research priorities toward the next-generation of DRMF products.
3. Supporting a sustained agenda on EO product design for DRMF initiatives. Beyond technical outputs, the project aimed to define a roadmap on EO product design for DRMF. This strategy rests on: (1) delivering evidence-based EO solutions and open-source tools; (2) co-designing activities with local actors and supporting their capacity building; (3) fostering long-term dialogue and coordination to harmonize DRMF instruments in Kenya and East Africa; and (4) leveraging synergies with major ongoing projects to enhance impact and value-for-money.
Project approach
Project implementation was anchored in four inter-related pillars:
First, to address concrete needs through evidence-based research: The technical solutions responded to concrete and immediate needs of NDMA and ZEP-RE and can be integrated in their operational systems. The rigorous dataset intercomparison provides scientific support to a possible transition to new datasets. Open-source data and processing routines can reduce implementation costs and guarantee full transparency.
Second, to co-design the project with local actors: Outputs were co-designed with NDMA and ZEP-RE and regularly discussed with the project partners. Furthermore, the project promoted capacity development throughout the project implementation to support local actors in building their capacity in evaluating alternative data products and in assessing trade-offs between EO data sources/processing methods for operational programs.
Third, promote dialogue, cross-learning, and coordination: The project worked towards creating enabling conditions for a better technical coordination and harmonization of existing DRMF instruments in Kenya. The final workshop brought together key organizations involved in DRMF in the country, sharing a common vision toward a synergic agenda on product design. New research proposals involving multiple project partners have been already designed and submitted to advance the agenda.
Finally, to facilitate synergies with ongoing projects in pastoral drylands: Project activities were linked to ongoing projects such as the Resilient Approaches in Natural ranGeland Ecosystems (RANGE), De-risking, Inclusion and Value Enhancement of Pastoral Economies in the Horn of Africa (DRIVE), and the CGIAR Livestock and Climate Initiative.
Project outcomes
The project evaluated two alternative EO datasets meeting the requirements of operational DRMF initiatives, and developed open-source tools and technical documentation to calculate the drought indices used in the DEWS-NDMA and IBLI-DRIVE initiatives. These represent concrete options – backed by scientific assessment – for NDMA and ZEP-RE among others for operational continuity of their programs without significant costs.
Meanwhile, exploratory analysis of high-resolution datasets (i.e. Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel 2), while providing evidences of the limitations of currently available high resolution/long term EO options for DRMF, shows their potential value and the need to advance methods for multi-sensor EO data harmonization.
Through two workshops and continuous sensitization work, NG’OMbE has brought together stakeholders working on DRMF programs in Africa (from private/public sectors, international organizations, academic institutions, practitioners), to set up the conditions for a continuous dialogue and stronger cooperation on DRMF product design, a much needed perspective to support impactful scaling-up of anticipatory DRMF programs in the region.
Project outputs
- Two new datasets of continuous, smoothed, and filtered time series of MODIS-VIIRS FPAR and a custom SEVIRI FPAR product for Kenya’s ASALs and derived time series of DEWS-NDMA and IBLI-DRIVE drought indices (i.e., VCI, and z-score FPAR). One new dataset of high resolution drought indices, derived from the HLS dataset for northern Kenya, covering the period 2015-2025. All datasest are openly available upon request (contact rodolfo.ceriani@unimi.it).
- A technical report documenting the new operational datasets and processing chain and reporting the results of the intercomparison with existing operational datasets in DEWS-NDMA and IBLI-DRIVE.
- A technical report documenting the HLS high-resolution feasibility analysis and the qualitative comparison with existing operational indices and ground datasets.
- Open-access R and Python codes published on GitLab for data processing and drought index computation (https://gitlab.di.unimi.it/rodolfo.ceriani00/ngombe_script).
- Final workshop and associated report, providing a summary of key project takeaways and a multi-stakeholder vision toward a sustained collaborative agenda on DRMF product design (https://jameelobservatory.org/ngombe-workshop).
More
Download the final report: Fava, F.P., Ceriani, R., Vrieling, A., Paliwal, A., Meroni, M., Kamanga, B., Karissa, G., Mbaka, M., Mutanda, N., Ogolla, C., and Zyambo, I. 2026. Next-Generation Earth Observation (EO) for Anticipatory Drought Risk Management in East African Pastoral Drylands. Milan: University of Milan for the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action.
Download the technical report: Ceriani, R., Vrieling, A., Paliwal, A., Meroni, M., Kamanga, B., Karissa, G., Mbaka, M., Mutanda, N., Ogolla, C., Zyambo, I., and Fava, F.P. 2025. Evaluation of alternative Earth Observation datasets to support operational drought risk financing and management initiatives in Kenya. Milan: University of Milan for the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action.
Download the technical report: Ceriani, R., Vrieling, A., Paliwal, A., Meroni, M., Kamanga, B., Karissa, G., Mbaka, M., Mutanda, N., Ogolla, C., Zyambo, I., and Fava, F.P. 2025. Exploring the potential of high-resolution Earth Observation datasets to support operational drought monitoring systems in Kenya. Milan: University of Milan for the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action.