University of Edinburgh PhD student and Jameel Observatory Fellow John Mutua reports from his recent placement at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the African Union’s Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR).
The Challenge
Across Africa’s drylands and rangelands, livestock – cattle, small ruminants and camels – underpin the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of pastoralists providing them with food and income as well as safety nets in times of drought. Keeping these animals fed year-round is an essential part of every pastoralist’s day; it is also an increasingly important policy challenge for governments seeking to feed their people and meet growing demands for meat, milk and other animal-source products.
During my three-month placement on the RAFFS project with the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the African Union’s Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources (AU-IBAR) from October to December 2025, I stepped into a continental crisis: across sub-Saharan Africa, countries like Nigeria, Cameroon, and Somalia lack national-scale data on livestock feed composition, supply, and demand. This data gap affects millions of livelihoods and food security. Feed constitutes up to 70% of livestock production costs, yet most African countries lack the data and coordination necessary to manage this critical sector effectively.
A solution
Working from the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action based at the University of Edinburgh, we developed a methodology that combined satellite imagery with ground-truth data for comprehensive feed balance assessments. Our methodology uses:
- Dry matter productivity layers for biomass availability from the EU’s ‘Copernicus’ earth observation programme
- Land use/cover data for spatial distribution, also from Copernicus
- Animal population data from the FAO ‘Gridded Livestock of the World’ datasets
- Feed parameters for nutritional requirements and supply obtained from online databases such as FEAST and SSA Feeds and livestock parameters gathered from published studies and reports
We modelled feed availability using spatial data, then estimated demand using livestock data and local herd parameters. Traditional feed balance assessments rely on time-consuming household surveys and extensive local data collection, often taking years to complete and involving considerable cost. The satellite-based approach reduced assessment costs and time by 90% compared to these conventional methods while providing near real-time, evidence-based policy foundation.
This methodology is particularly valuable for pastoral systems where dry savannah zones host most ruminants but experience severe feed shortages. The satellite approach enables rapid assessment of when and where feed becomes critically scarce, potentially supporting early warning systems for pastoralist communities who depend on these rangelands for their livestock and livelihoods.
I led capacity building workshops in Kenya (see image below) and Nigeria, training 16 participants from six African countries. This expanded access to sophisticated analytical tools and built local expertise for sustainable impact.
Trainees were very positive: “The course is very valuable for estimating and preparing regular feed outlooks and feed balances. It will help in planning and preparedness to prevent massive livestock deaths associated with recurrent feed scarcities due to droughts,” said a participant during a training workshop in Nairobi, Kenya.
“The training workshop was valuable; it will help in formulating livestock feed policy and addressing feed demand in the country” said a participant during a training workshop in Abuja, Nigeria.
Results and insights
Our work on Nigeria’s first comprehensive national feed inventory revealed striking findings (the map below shows zones with feed deficit – red – and surplus – green):
- An 8.33% national feed deficit—194.71 million tonnes of dry matter available against 212.39 million tonnes required, leaving a shortfall of 17.68 million tonnes annually.
- Massive variations masked by national averages—southern states like Bayelsa showed a huge surplus in available dry matter while northern livestock-dense states, for example Jigawa, Katsina, Sokoto, and Katsina, faced severe deficits (Figure 2).
- Dry savannah zones that host most ruminants experience severe shortages, while humid forest zones with minimal livestock show massive unused biomass surpluses.
- Economic opportunity—Nigeria could unlock significant business potential by mobilizing underutilized biomass through feed markets, pelleting industries, and strategic feedlot positioning.
Our work directly informed Nigeria’s National Animal Feed and Fodder Policy, feedlot infrastructure planning, and early warning systems integration, demonstrating how data science translates into immediate policy impact.
Next steps
The methodology is expanding to other African countries, with training materials being used across multiple countries. Four key future directions emerge:
- Continental scaling—Expanding assessments to all AU member states for comprehensive livestock feed security mapping and regional trade strategies.
- Real-time monitoring—Developing early warning systems integrating feed, climate, and market indicators to inform crisis prevention before they devastate populations.
- Weather and climate integration—Incorporating seasonal forecasts into feed planning for long-term adaptation as climate variability intensifies.
- Market development—Supporting private sector investment through better data, with Nigeria’s opportunity suggesting strong continental potential.
This placement demonstrated that powerful research happens at the intersection of technical excellence and development purpose. Africa’s livestock feed challenges are complex but not unconquerable. With technology, capacity, and political will, we can transform livestock from subsistence into drivers of economic growth and food security across the continent.