Data analysis & forecasting

 

Big Data enables us to bring together real-time information, in country, that can unpick some of the complexities at play in pastoralist communities in East Africa and elsewhere.

With sophisticated computing, reporting and visualisation tools, research teams and analysts can bring together, mine and make sense of seemingly disparate sets of data and information such as livestock genetics, weather, markets, human geography, soil quality and population medicine. Complex questions can be asked and new trends and inter-connections traced. By co-creating research and practice questions, pastoralists, Jameel Observatory partners and others can develop digital tools to help communities and individuals shape their own food security, nutrition and livelihoods.

Examples of data and evidence-led projects involving Observatory partners include:

Household Economy Analysis

helps determine people’s food and non-food needs and identify appropriate means of assistance. 
(Save the Children)
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The Cost of the Diet tool

used to help understand changes in food and nutrition insecurity, providing early warning indicators within food security and nutrition early warning systems. 
(Save the Children) 
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Index-based livestock insurance

a set of insurance products to help protect livestock keepers from drought related asset losses in drought-prone arid and semi-arid lands. (ILRI)
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The Data for Children Collaborative

leverages data and expertise from our community to address existing problems for children using innovative data science techniques.
(University of Edinburgh)
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The Children’s Climate Risk Index

interactive atlas presents data to help target climate change responses to serve the most vulnerable.
(University of Edinburgh)
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Environmental and Climate Stress Index

an early warning system to spot where climate change could impact areas already affected by conflict or natural disasters.
(University of Edinburgh)
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The Rangelands Atlas

highlight the changes taking place which are having significant impacts on rangelands, demanding their protection and restoration.
(ILRI)
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LivestockData

encourages better use of existing data and analysis, and supporting collaboration on new and innovative data solutions for livestock in development.
(University of Edinburgh)
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Evaluating Forecast-Based Action

a randomized evaluation that will compare the impacts of aid sent to Somali households before and after a drought has begun, supported by the King Climate Action Initiative.
(J-PAL)
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GRID

the Child Inequality Tracker, shows data on malnutrition, as well as other key child wellbeing measures.
(Save the Children)
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These ever-growing, enriched and tailored sets of data will enable us to:

  • Combine data, information and local knowledge to better predict climate risks, encourage coordinated actions, and guide (and evaluate) interventions
  • Build and mobilise expertise and data to tackle tough challenges as experienced first-hand by pastoralists themselves.
  • Capture real-time price information, such as the cost of food or use spatial imaging to track vegetation growth and detect rainfall anomalies
  • Use satellites, drones, weather data and remote sensing to detect location and numbers of livestock, as well as quantifying available feed resources
  • Work with space agencies to monitor atmospheric methane as a proxy for livestock numbers
  • Capture relevant news and social media through natural language processing

By better understanding these complex environments and key research questions, pastoral communities and the people working with them can use data-powered solutions to better monitor and assess needs, target interventions, and effectively collaborate and coordinate their efforts.