In April 2026, the Observatory convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and key messages on issues and opportunities that can advance early action for dryland resilience and prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This policy brief and accompanying short video are products of this exercise.
Summary
Climate weather shocks, primarily droughts and floods, are a leading cause of livestock mortality,food insecurity, acute malnutrition, market instability, and chronic poverty in the drylands of East Africa.
Several early warning systems provide geographically disaggregated seasonal weather forecasts for the region, yet crises continue. A key reason is that these services provide information about expected weather conditions but not on the impacts they may have on people and livelihoods, nor how to respond to them.
Impact-based forecasts seek to close this gap by translating meteorological forecasts into practical information about likely impacts.
This brief shows how one such impact-based forecast – on livestock feed status – can enhance livestock productivity and food security in the drylands of East Africa. It explains what data and methods are needed, and how such a product could support local and strategic decision making in practice.
Key messages
- Drought-caused feed deficits reduce livestock health, productivity and value, and often lead to livestock mortality. These undermine livestock-led pastoralist livelihoods and household security.
- Seasonal forecasts describe expected weather conditions, but they do not inform pastoralists, policy makers or other decision-makers on the implications of expected conditions on livestock feed supply and demand. These information gaps delay action and cost lives and livelihoods.
- The data and methods now exist to build sub-national level forecasts of feed availability and demand, combining earth observation, livestock census data, and local knowledge.
- Impact-based feed forecasts scould shift responses from crisis management to pre-emptive action, enabling pastoralist communities and other agencies to arrange supplementary feeding before shortages become emergencies.