In April 2026, the Observatory convened an ‘evidence capitalization workshop’ with partners to synthesize insights and key messages on issues and opportunities that can advance early action for dryland resilience and prosperity in the Horn of Africa. This policy brief and accompanying short video are products of this exercise.
Summary
Pastoralist livelihoods rely on mobility and flexibility to make the most of highly variable and often unpredictable dryland environments.
Anticipatory action – broadly understood as the proactive mitigation of crises before they occur – is yet to achieve a substantive impact in these areas.
This is only partly due to coordination and financing challenges; it also reflects an incongruity between mechanistic, rigid, top-down approaches and the collaborative and improvisational ways in which pastoralists pursue their livelihoods, including during shocks and disasters.
Making anticipatory action work for pastoralists requires a shift towards locally grounded planning, a focus on the role of local government authorities and other trusted community leaders, and a reorientation of support towards the existing anticipatory practices of pastoralists.
Key messages
- Anticipatory action stands at a critical juncture. As aid budgets shrink, we must resist the pull of centralisation and rigid, top-down systems.
- Mainstreaming anticipatory action in pastoralist areas requires a renewed focus on local governments/authorities/other trusted community leaders. Its value and sustainability hinge on strong relationships between these authorities and impacted communities.
- External assistance should focus on supporting the existing anticipatory practices undertaken by pastoralist communities, including mobility, flexible economic engagement with shifting resources and utilisation of multiple forms of knowledge/information.
- Anticipatory action is not neutral, it shapes institutions, activities and practices in a variety of complex ways, and can even lead to unintended negative outcomes.