What we do
RESEARCH PROJECTS
From climate change to conflict: Mitigation through insurance?
Background
Conflict is a major cause of food insecurity for pastoralists living in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this setting, conflict commonly takes place as cattle raids, with the objective of capturing cattle and/or driving opposing herders away from desired pastures or waterpoints. Conflict can directly cause loss of life, loss of livestock, and loss of access to water points and pastures, which is tragic and can be disastrous for long-term welling of the thousands of survivors each year. More broadly, the risk of being raided impacts the millions of pastoralists living in the region, influencing their migration and settlement patterns, and therefore livelihood outcomes.
There are several studies the identify drought, and the resource scarcity that it causes, as a major driver of conflict. If true, droughts then hit households twice. First, droughts reduce the density of rangeland resources (i.e., forage and fodder), which reduces livestock productivity and therefore household income. Second, by increasing the risk of conflict, it reduces the set of resources that herders can be safely access, further reducing productivity and income.
Objective
This research aims to reduce the impact of conflict on households in the drylands.
Activities and outputs
The initial phase of this project focused on identifying the key drivers of conflict and the extent to which drought-caused resource scarcity was a factor. This work paid special attention to capturing heterogeneity across the landscape by engaging with pastoralists and stakeholders from communities across the drylands of Ethiopia and Kenya. We found that there are many different immediate causes of conflict but that many of them do originate in conflict over resources during drought.
The second phase of this project tests two interventions aimed at reducing conflict. The first intervention uses insurance to reduce the impact of drought on resource availability. The second uses an edutainment video to change the perceptions related to initiating conflict. The two interventions will cross randomized and implemented in 2025 across a set of 3,142 households from 393 communities (sublocations/kebeles) in Kenya and Ethiopia. Their impacts will be tested using survey data collected from those households before and after the treatments.
Partners
AIID Africa, Cornell University, Georgia State University, Global Research Consultancy Services, International Alert, International Livestock Research Institute, Policy Studies Institute, University of Amsterdam, University of Edinburgh, University of Nairobi, Utrecht University, Wageningen University and Research.
