A new ‘Community Jameel x Afikra COP28 podcast’ features the Observatory’s Guyo Malicha Roba in conversation with Rami Zurayk of the American University of Beirut and Nader Diab of Community Jameel.

Recorded for COP28, the three explore how pastoralists contribute to food systems in East Africa and the Arab region – and how climate change affects them.

Below, read some key strands from the comversation; you can also watch the conversation on YouTube.

The text below captures and summarizes some key points and conversation threads from the podcast episode [it is not a transcript]

Pastoralism roles and risks

Setting the scene, Roba and Zurayk reflected on the current situation of pastoralism in their regions, reflecting on similarities and differences.

Roba said that pastoralists, globally, all exist in low-input systems that share common attributes in terms of low rainfall and reliance on livestock … hence there are common shocks and vulnerabilities. In East Africa, this is largely drought.

Zurayk additionally highlighted the changing dynamics that tend to make pastoralism less resilient and more exposed to climate shocks than ever before. He highlighted a trend in the Arab world from largely intermittent droughts to situations where climate change is making droughts more frequent and more pronounced. He also pointed to restrictions on mobility that reduce the abilities of people to manage shocks by moving to less affected places.

Roba also pointed to the traditional importance of mobility as a strategy for communities to escape or minimize threats, whether disease or drought. He also highlighted the challenge arising from repeated droughts, saying it takes typical pastoral households around five years to bounce back from a very intensive drought. So he sees cycles over longer periods of ‘growth and crash’, repeated around each drought. However, when communities experience back- to-back droughts, as in the past several years, they are unable to bounce back and re-grow, so many people become destitute.

This inability to bounce back is not just a challenge for the pastoral communities, it seriously affects the whole country. In Kenya, according to Roba, 85 to 90% of the meat consumed is from pastoral systems … so any shocks like drought soon affect the whole economy and wellbeing of the country.

Zurayk elaborated further, pointing out the important role of pastoralism in Middle East ecosystems and the dangers if the equilibrium is lost. In a region that is 90% drylands, the disappearance or abandoning of pastoralism is saying that just 10% of the region matters from a food systems perspective.

Early warnings, early actions

Recognizing the importance of drylands, but also the risks they face, the conversation moved to explore Early Warning Systems and how these can be enhanced.

Asked about the approach of the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action, Roba characterized it as an action research project – aiming to solve real problems and bringing in research and evidence.

Describing the past 50 years response strategy in the East Africa region as being very reactive and centered on human humanitarian support, he argued that research is essential to improve delivery of early warnings as well as the triggers that will unleash support – right along the ‘drive circle’ because drought is not static. It takes 6 months between the normal time to a point when it reaches an emergency and then goes into recovery phase.

He explained that the Observatory’s research builds evidence around five challenges:

    1. One is the data for effective early warning. how do we improve the data question around last mile connectivity packaging and delivery?
    2. The second is on coordination. Because drought is a complex issue, it involves many actors that are not all well-coordinated.
    3. Financing early action is the third. We have early warning which is not matched by multi-layered structured financing. So the question is how to make sure that improved systems and delivey mechanisms can count on the financing they need when it is needed.
    4. The fourth question is around building trust in the many data sources brought together by the various actors.
    5. Fifth, he recognizes that the most effective responses happen at the local level – by communities or through local agencies. But they are not well resourced or financed to respond in time. So, this fifth question is how to connect this dot and bring in the local level effectiveness and agency to respond.

Lastly, as much as the early warning systems have really improved, Roba says that they are not matched with enhanced capacities of the responders.

 Capacity development

Building on his last comment, Roba makes a case for more education and capacity building, in two main areas: First, working with universities to bring topics like anticipatory action and early warning into their curricula, and second, to explore ways that the next generation of disaster response change agents and leaders can be supported, perhaps through fellowships with partners in policy or local level research or by working with Government.

Zurayk illustrates how knowledge of pastoralism in Arab countries is slowly eroding away, not just in universities and education, but in everyday language. He called on policy makers and their advisers to educate themselves on these issues to better guide future investments as well as to avoid conflicts among different land and resource users.

Concluding on this issue, Roba highlights that investments in early warning systems have increased over the years, but without equivalent investments in capacities or people that can effectively use these systems.

“You have your early warning, [but] you have no capacity for early action, you have no financing for early action.” These areas should receive substantive investment to strengthen out abilities to respond to shocks of the magnitude that fit the Horn of Africa in the last two years.